Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
